Friday 19 October 2018

Saturday October 20th

Of the 3 Saturdays that I’ll be covering during the pre-season, tomorrow is the lowest key...

There are NH meetings taking place at Ffos Las, Market Rasen and Stratford - but they are not quite of the calibre of Chepstow last Saturday, or that I expect to see at Cheltenham, in a weeks time...

That said, there should still be some decent action – and more pointers for the season ahead – particularly at Ffos Las, where the Welsh Champion hurdle, is the high-light of the card…


Ffos Las

2:10

I wouldn’t ordinarily bother previewing a class 5 race, as I doubt any of the runners contesting it, will end up in a ‘Big’ race this season.
However, Ruby Fool catches my eye…
She is trained by Richard Mitford-Slade – and he did particularly well with just a handful of horses, last season (Samuel Jackson, being his stable star).
Ruby Fool ran 3 times last season and didn’t trouble the judge.
As a result of  that however, she gets to run off a mark of just 86 of her handicap debut.
The step up to 3 miles should suit – and wearing a first time hood and on the back of a wind op, she looks far more interesting than most of her rivals.
Clearly there is a lot of guess work – but I’m sure others will latch on to her…
If you can get some of the 11/1 on offer this evening, she is worth a small risk.

Selection: Ruby Fool at 11/1

 3:55

This is cracking novice chase – which may well contain one or two horses who go on to prove themselves top notch.
Vision Des Flos finished runner up in grade 1 novice hurdles at both the Aintree and Punchestown festival, last season – and is expected to do even better over fences.
He sets the standard – though a price of 11/8, is tight enough, for a chasing debutante against some potentially tough rivals.
No Comment has chasing experience from last season – and with Barry Geraghty in the saddle, he sets a fair standard.
That said, it would be no surprise to see any of the 7 other runners, perform well…

It really should be a watching race – but I may be tempted to have a small play on Angels Antics.
She was the lowest rated of the field over fences – but is a big scopey mare, who definitely looks the sort to improve for a fence.
She is trained by Nigel Twiston Davies, and his horses are in really good form: she is also owned by Ffos Las supremo, Dai Walters.
Furthermore, she won on her seasonal debut 12 months ago, so I would expect to be ready to do herself justice tomorrow.
With such a strong field, maybe each way, is the best way to play things…

Selection: Angels Antics EW at 33/1

4:25

Unbeaten on his seasonal debut (across 7 seasons !), I’ve no doubt that The New One will be primed to follow up his win in this race, 12 months ago.
And he may well be up to the task – though just a couple of months shy of his eleventh birthday, things aren’t going to be getting any easier for him…
He faces 2 or 3 potentially very tough rivals – and I wouldn’t be too surprised if at least one of them, gets the better of him…
It’s really going to depend on which horse is wound up to run its race – with the betting suggesting that Silver Streak is the most likely.
If that’s the case, then he could well take advantage of the 20lb he receives from The New One.
Mohaayed is the other one that really interests me – and at the prices on offer tonight, he is the more attractive bet.
He won the County hurdle at last season’s Cheltenham festival – and it looks significant that Harry Skelton is on board him, rather than stablemate, Ch’Tbello (who could also be given a chance).
This is definitely a race where I would expect the market to advise close to the off – but without that knowledge, I’d be inclined to side with Mohaayed.

Selection: Mohaayed at 13/2


Market Rasen

2:50

I like the look of Dentley de Mee in this – but wonder whether he will be sufficiently fit to do himself justice.
I tipped him in the EBF final at Sandown last season - and he ran an excellent race to finish second.
From a mark just 4lb higher tomorrow, he must have every chance – provided fitness is not an issue.
Ofcourse we can only guess on that score – and that makes him hard to get involved with…
In truth, he’s not the only one in the race, for whom fitness has to be taken on trust.
All of the other runners, bar North Hill and Just Milly, are making their seasonal debuts.
In the circumstances, if I did play in the race, I would probably take a small speculative stab at Just Milly.
She ran quite well on her most recent outing at Warwick – and has now been eased to a mark from which she was competitive last season.
I don’t think she is the best horse in the race - or even the best handicapped - but she could be the fittest, and that’s definitely worth something at this time of year.

Selection: Just Milly EW at 20/1

4:00

This is the best race on the card by some margin – and again, fitness is likely to be the deciding factor…
There are no question marks over The Unit, in that regard, and with his recent form with Drinks Interval having been franked by that ones performance at Chepstow on Sunday, it’s not too surprising to see him installed favourite…
That said, I would be a little surprised if he were good enough to cope with any of Romain de Senam, Ballyboley, Master Dee – or even Calipto, if they are at their peak…
Of the 4, then I would expect Ballyboley to be closest to his peak.
He was a comfortable winner of the corresponding race 12 months ago - and must have every chance of following up tomorrow, off precisely the same mark.
Based on the efforts of his runners last weekend, then I would also expect the Paul Nichols trained Romain de Senam to be ready to do himself justice.
He looks fairly handicapped - and as a 6 year old, still has plenty of room for improvement.
The booking of Conor Brace for Master Dee, looks interesting - and suggests that his connections are going to be giving it their best shot: whilst Calipto is still potentially well handicapped based on his form from a couple of years ago – provided he’s ready to do himself justice…
It’s a very hard race to call - particularly as non of the other 3 runners can be easily dismissed.
If forced, I would side with Ballyboley – but it’s a race that I might just end up watching…

Selection: Ballyboley at 9/2

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