Sunday October 14th

The action at Chepstow this afternoon didn’t disappoint – and it was great to see some proper jump racing again !

Non of the days selections managed to come home in front – but I gave a positive mentions to both Spiritofthegame and Grand Sercy, so a few of you may have got involved with those 2.

The days 2 big races were won by horses who it would have been very difficult to select.

However, that happens at this time of the year, which is why I’m not prepared to start tipping just yet…

Of more importance, there were some real eye catching performances - and I’ll be very surprised if a few of the horses that ran today, don’t prove to be money spinners for us over the next few weeks.

That’s in the future, however..!

They race again at Chepstow tomorrow – and the meeting looks just as good as todays.

There is also the Munster National at Limerick – so plenty of action to be watched (with maybe the odd small wager, as well !).

Here are my thoughts on the days main races…

Chepstow

2:50

As was the case with todays novice chase, this looks a cracking contest – though it's nearly impossible to unravel.

Again, we can only guess the situation with regard to fitness, improvement and jumping ability of the main protagonists – so it's difficult to recommend getting heavily involved.

Debece is the one I like most – but 7/2 is short enough considering all the imponderables. 

Maybe he will drift nearer the off...

At the prices on offer this evening, then Enniscoffey Oscar holds some appeal. Odds of 8/1 probably under-estimate his chance.

One worthy of consideration at a very big price, is Pauls Hill.
There is lots of speculation involved but his defeat of Tommy Rapper over hurdles at Towcester last season, suggest he could be capable of holding his own in this company.

He's also bred to be a chaser - so if he's fit for his seasonal debut, don't expect the current 33/1 to last !

Selection: Enniscoffey Oscar at 8/1

3:25

This looks relatively weak, for a grade 2 event – and I was hoping I might get a price on Gosheven.

He's only run twice over hurdles – but showed reasonable form – and has loads of potential for improvement.

I also think it interesting that Philip Hobbs is prepared to throw him into such a race, bearing in mind his inexperience (it's not really his modus operandi !).

I guess it can be argued that 7/1 is not a bad price – but I was hoping for double figures..!

Of the others, then Coolaney just about sets the standard on the back of his fifth place in a grade 1 at Aintree, last season.

He may be up to winning – but if he is, it won't reflect well on the quality of the race..!

Selection: Gosheven at 7/1

4:00

On initial inspection, I was very keen on Caroles Destrier in this – but I'm cooling a little on him...

Maybe that's unfair, as he is spectacularly well handicapped – starting the season on a mark 18lb lower than he started from last season.

Admittedly, he did show very little during his last campaign – but he only ran 4 times and is still only 10 years old. He could easily bounce back tomorrow...

His current rating of 136 is 12lb lower than he was rated, when he finished second to Native River in the 2016 Hennessy – if he repeats that form tomorrow, he will win...

In fairness, taking that form literally, he doesn't have loads in hand of Double Ross.
He finished third in the 2016 Hennessy – and meets Caroles Destrier on the same terms.

The issue with him is that he's 12 - and may well be in decline. On the plus side however, he has had a recent run, so should be fit enough to do himself justice...

Outside of those 2, there are quite a few who I could be interested in...

Beat That and On Tour head the list – particularly as both are only 10 (the minimum age for a veteran) and also relatively lightly raced.

However, I'm not sure that tomorrows conditions (course, trip, ground) will ideally suit either one...

Neither Bishops Road, nor Bob Ford will have an issue with conditions – but they are risky for other reasons (form/consistency).

That said, if either one were to put its best foot forward they are handicapped to win.

Selection: Caroles Destrier at 7/1

4:35

Ballymoy is an understandable favourite for this.

He was very impressive when taking handicap hurdle at Sandown on the final day of last season – and even off a 7lb higher mark tomorrow, must have a very good chance.

The problem is a price of 9/4 in a competitive 10 runner race...

I'm a Game Changer and Vado Forte both have fair chances – but there doesn't look to be much margin in their prices, either...

At the odds available, Scheu Time is the one I like best.

Trained in Ireland by James Nash, he looked set to win a fair handicap hurdle at Aintree on Grand National day, when he took a fall at the last.
He gets to run from a mark just 3lb higher tomorrow – and it's interesting that Nash has seen fit to again travel over with him.

He can be backed at 10/1 this evening – and it strikes me that there is a bit of value in that price...

Selection: Scheu Time at 10/1

5:10

This is another really good race - and I'm quite keen on the chance of Ballyhill...

He won a decent race at Cheltenham on New Years day, getting the better of Shantou Flyer.
That one went on to finish runner up at the festival, thereby franking the form.

Ballyhill, on the other hand, did little in 3 subsequent runs.
However, as a result, he gets to run tomorrow off a mark just 1lb higher than he won from.

He's still only 7, so if anything, he should be improving.
Trip, track and ground will be fine for him – it's just a question of whether he is fit and if he copes with the fences.

At a price of 7/1, he is probably worth a small risk...

There are plenty of other potential dangers/horses of interest, headed by Barney Dwan.

That said, most of them are best watched tomorrow, with a view to the future...

Selection: Ballyhill at 7/1

Limerick

4:45

I'm not sure whether it will be tomorrow – but Blast of Koeman will win a decent race this year, mark my words...

He was unlucky not to win one last season, just touched off by the much improved Patricks Park at the Punchestown festival, having made a real mess of the final fence.

He gets to wear blinkers for the first time tomorrow, in an attempt to sharpen up his jumping. 

If they have the desired affect – and don't make him race keenly over a trip which could stretch his stamina - I think he will go very close...

Gordon Elliot saddles 5 in the race – and whilst Rogue Angel appears to be his Number 1, with Jack Kennedy on board, Our Father is the one who catches my eye.
He's always been a huge talent – but has consistently failed to deliver at the highest level.

He's 12 now – so he's not going to scale the heights that once seemed possible – however off a mark of just 130 (he was 154 at his peak) he could be absolutely thrown in.

You can't properly back him, because he's not run for 1382 days ! However, he has always run well fresh - and if Elliot does have him back close to his best, he could dot up.

He's saver material - even if a price of 6/1 is quite short...

Selection: Blast of Koeman at 14/1