The first Cheltenham meeting of the new season, is always a cause for excitement - and tomorrows is no different.
Apparently the ground is in good condition (watered, to ride on the soft side of good) - and the card is both interesting and varied.
There are 7 races; with 3 big field handicaps, complimented by 4 novice events.
I doubt I’ll get involved with any of the novice events, as there is too much guesswork.
I might have one or two small plays in the handicap however, as I do think that the fields can be narrowed down quite significantly.
Here are my thoughts:
Cheltenham
2:00
The Irish have a strong hand in this, with Irish trainers responsible for the top 3 in the betting.
In terms of proven form, that’s quite reasonable - though all of the English horses have plenty of potential.
It really isn’t a race that I would want to get involved with: but Havana Beat may represent a bit of value at 10/1.
He showed fair form in the spring, and should be fit enough to do himself justice, following an outing on the flat at Kempton, earlier this month.
Selection: Havana Beat at 10/1
2:35
This doesn’t look quite as open as the previous contest - but it’s another race which I will have no difficulty in sitting out !
Diakali is the the rightful favourite - but I couldn’t consider him at 6/4.
He was a dual grade 1 winner when trained by Willie Mullins - and won twice over fences, for Gary Moore at the end of last season.
However, they were uncompetitive events at minor tracks and the wins told us little…
He will face a very different test tomorrow - and whilst he may be up to it, I won’t be betting on it.
I would be far more tempted by Storm Home.
She showed a good level of form over hurdles last season - and whilst she disappointed on her chasing debut in May, I’d be prepared to ignore that.
She has plenty of potential - and if she is fit, she looks a reasonable bet at 6/1.
She has plenty of potential - and if she is fit, she looks a reasonable bet at 6/1.
Selection: Storm Home at 6/1
3:10
The first handicap of the afternoon - and not an easy one to solve…
I’ll offer 3 against the field, in the shape of And the Now, Brillaire Momento and Court Minstrel.
I think Brillaire Momento sets the standard for the race - and I would expect her to be placed.
She won a novice race at this meeting 12 months ago - and I have no doubt she will be primed for a big run tomorrow.
The trouble is, she’s not particularly well handicapped - and is unlikely to show huge improvement - so she is vulnerable from a win perspective…
And the Now is making his handicap debut - but has novice form (and bumper form) which suggests he could be well handicapped.
The question with him, is whether he will be fit enough to do himself justice.
I suspect the market will advise on that, close to the off…
I suspect the market will advise on that, close to the off…
Court Minstrel is well handicapped - and he’s fit - the problem with him, is that he is rising 12 and he must have good ground to race on…
He showed last time at Chepstow, that he retains sufficient ability to win a race of this nature - and I think he’s the one to beat.
Unfortunately, he’s been well backed this evening and the current 7/1 looks tight enough.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see him drift a little tomorrow - and that won’t stop me from backing him.
Selection: Court Minstrel at 7/1 - dangers: And the Now and Brillaire Momento
3:45
TVB favourite Lil Rockerfeller has his second run over fences in this - and he should win.
He was a class above tomorrows rivals, over hurdles - and his jumping was proficient enough on his recent chasing debut at Uttoxeter.
Shannon Bridge looks the obvious one to follow him home.
Favourite to beat second favourite - how very perceptive of me :)
Selection: Lil Rockerfeller at Evs
4:20
This is a fascinating novice hurdle, with the top 3 in the betting all making their hurdling debuts, having looked very useful in winning their respective bumpers, last season.
I wouldn’t really want to choose between the 3 - though Sebastapol did look particularly good, when taking an historically strong race at the Scottish Grand National meeting, at Ayr, in April.
Bang on Frankie has some decent hurdle form - and is the one most likely to take advantage, if inexperience costs the market leaders…
Selection: Sebastapol at 7/4
4:55
I quite like the look of Asking Questions, in this…
He’s relatively unexposed, with only 3 runs over fences (2 of which he won) - though he has also run 5 times in PTPs (winning once).
He showed a good attitude when winning his chases last spring - and he should be fit enough to do himself justice, following a second placing over hurdles at Southwell, earlier in the month.
The main concern has to be his inexperience - but if he jumps round cleanly, I suspect he’ll go close.
Presenting Julio looks the main danger.
He was a slightly unlucky fifth in the corresponding race last year, and gets to run off a 3lb lower mark tomorrow.
He also has Jamie Codd in the saddle - which is always a huge plus in amateur rider races…
The final one I’ll offer, is Sergeant Brody.
He’s very speculative (general 40/1 chance !) - but it strikes me as interesting that his connections are opting to run him in this race, on only his second chase start under rules…
He did win a PTP a couple of years back (and was placed in 2 others) - and I suspect has a fair bit more ability than he’s so far had opportunity to show.
Selection: Asking Questions at 12/1
5:30
This is possibly the trickiest of the 3 handicaps on the card…
Again, I’ll offer 3 against the field, in the shape of Lord Condi, Sunnytahliategan and Man of Plenty.
Lord Condi has only run in 3 novice hurdles - so is a little short on experience for a race of this nature !
More than that, he didn’t jump very well last time - and that was in a a 3 runner event !!
He will need to improve in that department - but I do think it interesting that connections have chosen to run him in this race.
Martin Keighley targets this meeting - so I suspect the horse will be primed for a big run.
Whether he’s up to the job, is a different matter - but there is sufficient juice in the price to warrant a small risk.
If he’d had a recent run, then I would be quite keen on Sunnytahliategan - but he’s not seen a racecourse since January.
It’s his run prior to that, which makes him of particular interest - when he split Golan Fortune and Bastian.
It’s his run prior to that, which makes him of particular interest - when he split Golan Fortune and Bastian.
They are now rated 23lb & 11lb higher in the handicap, suggesting that Sunny had quite a job on trying to beat them !
He’s just 3lb higher himself now - which means he could be a well handicapped horse.
Certainly at 33/1, it is worth taking a small risk on his fitness.
He’s just 3lb higher himself now - which means he could be a well handicapped horse.
Certainly at 33/1, it is worth taking a small risk on his fitness.
Man of Plenty is the final one of interest.
He was a bit unlucky when finishing second in this race, 12 months ago - and based on that form, has a good chance.
Based on his most recent run at Market Rasen however, his chance isn’t so good - but I suspect that was all about getting him ready for tomorrow.
I’m not sure he’ll be quite good enough to win - but I certainly wouldn’t be surprised to see him get placed.
Selection: Lord Condi at 16/1 - dangers Sunnytahliategan and Man of Plenty
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