To say that the opening day of the Showcase meeting was eventful, is a bit of an under-statement - with two horses running out, in their respective races, when looking likely to win.
The Cheltenham hill has often seen results change - but rarely in quite such a random fashion !
That said, there was little random about most of the results on the day - with very well backed horses taking 4 of the races.
Unfortunately, a couple of the horses I selected in the handicaps, were completely friendless in the market.
The drifts on Asking Questions (12/1 last night - BSP 34) and Lord Condi (16/1 last night - BSP 42), left a bit of a taste.
Both horses should have been fit - and they had progressive profiles - but even in-running, they were layed in a manner that suggested someone knew today wasn’t going to be the day…
The market is getting embarrassingly predictive.
I had hoped that it might not be quite so accurate at Cheltenham - but alas…
Anyway, there isn’t much we can do about it (other than find something else to bet on !) - so I’ll continue to play things with a straight bat…
Rather surprisingly, tomorrows racing doesn’t look quite as good as todays.
Certainly there isn’t the same balance - and whilst there are two or three good looking races - there are also a few disappointing ones.
Here are my thoughts on all 7…
2:00
This is a really interesting race - but there is probably a bit too much guesswork required, in terms of fitness, to warrant getting heavily involved…
Cogry won the corresponding race last season - and off a 3lb higher mark tomorrow, he should go very close - provided he is in the same form.
Unfortunately, his form isn’t guaranteed… (nor is his jumping !)
Based on his fourth in last years Hennessy, it can be argued that Braqueur D’or is just about the best handicapped horse in the race.
He’s not run this season - but came to hand early last season, so I suspect he will be able to do himself justice.
The issue with him, is the course - I don’t know whether it will suit him.
If it does, I think he’s the one to beat - though there isn’t much margin in a price of 7/1…
Relentless Dreamer probably represents the best value in the race at 16/1 (in places).
His form from last season is very solid - and he still looks attractively handicapped.
There is a question mark regarding his fitness - but if he’s ready to himself justice - and provided he handles the track - then he could easily place…
They would be my 3 against the field - but there are probably twice that number whom I’d be fearful of !
For Good Measure looks as if he could have been targeted at the race; whilst Minella Rocco is well handicapped - even with top weight.
I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Dell Arca run well - following a good showing in Ireland, last time.
Selection: Relentless Dreamer at 16/1 - dangers Braqueue D’or and Cogry
2:35
The betting suggests this is between Gumball and Redicean - and it may well be right.
However, with fitness assured - and in receipt of weight from all of her rivals, Pearl of the West may warrant a small interest…
Certainly, from a handicapping perspective, she can be given half a chance - whilst Sean Bowen strikes me as an interesting jockey booking.
I’ve little doubt that the betting will provide a good guide to her chance - so if she is supported, I would be inclined to take the hint…
Selection: Pearl of the West at 14/1
3:10
If there is a bet on the card, then I suspect it could be Modus, in this…
He was a very decent handicap hurdler, the season before last - and hacked up in the Lanzarote hurdle off a mark of 145.
That suggests he could be well handicapped tomorrow off a mark of 146 - assuming he’s as good over a fence as he was over a hurdle.
In truth, that is open to question - though he was unbeaten in completed chase starts, prior to running at last seasons festival.
He was well beaten in the JLT, there - and subsequently in a grade 1 event at Aintree - but those race were significantly better than the class 2 handicap he runs in tomorrow.
The drop back to 2 miles is another question - but he finished second in the 2016 Greatwood hurdle, so I expect him to handle it.
In fact, with Foxtail Hill and Bigmatre, likely to ensure a ferocious gallop, a bit of stamina should be an asset.
Modus’ stable mate, Tommy Silver is a possible danger - though I don’t think he’s quite in Modus’ class.
In truth, I don’t think anything in the race is quite in Modus’s class - which is why I think he’s the best bet on the card
Selection: Modus at 9/2
3:45
I’m really not sure where to begin with this particular contest !
I could see top weight, Wait for Me, running well - though he’s probably not quite well enough handicapped to win.
Milrow finished second in the corresponding race last season - and based on that run, could again run well (despite a price of 40/1).
As with Wait for Me, however, a win is unlikely…
If forced to pick one, I’d probably side with NotwhatIam - and hope that the market backs me up.
In reality however, I’ll just be watching the race…
Selection: Notwhatiam at 9/1
4:20
This is a disappointing race - and in truth, I’ve not really got an opinion on it…
Dinons has by far the best hurdles form - but mainly because most of his rivals have very limited hurdling experience.
I’d have to make him the selection in the race - but it’s another race where I won’t be getting financially involved myself !
Selection: Dinons at Evs
4:55
Yet another race with limited betting appeal…
The question should be, whether Movewiththetimes can take advantage of the 7lb he receives from Monbeg Legend and Cubomania.
I think he will - but at 5/4, he holds no appeal from a betting perspective.
Selection: Movewiththetimes at 5/4
5:30
This is a much more competitive race than the two that precede it - but it’s not much more of a betting contest…
Romeo Brown is the one who appeals most, on the back of a very promising debut in a hot bumper run at this course on New Years day.
That form certainly sets a fair standard - but it’s impossible to know how much ability most of his rivals have.
Northern Bound is certainly one that I could be interested in - but in truth, this has to be another watching race…
Selection: Romeo Brown at 6/1
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