Wednesday October 24th

Things have been pretty quiet on the NH front, since Saturday…

Only 3 meetings have taken place in the UK (plus 1 in Ireland) - and all have suffered with small fields and consequently, uncompetitive racing.

Once again, it’s down to the weather - specifically, a lack of rain, which is causing firmer than ideal ground.

It’s all a bit ironic, considering it was an excess of rain which messed up the end of last season !

Such is life, I guess…

Things are a bit better tomorrow - and the fields have stood up reasonably well at both Worcester and Fontwell.

It’s hardly top class racing - but most of it is fairly competitive…

That said, low grade racing at this time of year, is a bit of a minefield, so if you do get involved, I would suggest treading very carefully !

Worcester

2:25

There are only 7 runner s in this - but all can be given a chance of sorts…

Truckers Highway won the corresponding race 12 months ago - and off a higher mark.

He’s clearly the one to beat, if he’s close to his best - and I’ve little doubt that the market will advise on that score…

The ex-French, Brave Dancing, is another one who is impossible to asses, on his debut for Ben Pauling.

Again, the market is likely to assist…

The other 5 runners are more straightforward to assess - though deciding which one is best at the weights, isn’t simple.

I would expect Mercian King to run his race - tho he could be vulnerable from a win perspective.

That said, he has a good attitude, and that will stand him in good stead, if he’s still got a chance, jumping the last.

Selection: Mercian King at 6/1

3:00

I like the top weight, Gunfleet in this - but the worry is that he’s making his seasonal debut and therefore might not be cherry ripe.

I suspect that he is the most talented horse in the race - and could well be capable of defying a mark of 134 (he won off 130 over hurdles, on his final outing last season).

Without wishing to sound like a broken record (!), the market will doubtless advise on his fitness, as the off time approaches…

I’d be prepared to take on favourite, Baden; whilst second fav Overland Flyer, has a few questions to answer (particularly with regard to his resolution).

By default, that could allow in either Allelu Alleluia or even Classic Ben, if Gunfleet isn’t ready to put his best foot forward…

Selection: Gunfleet at 4/1

4:10

There is a field of 15 for this - and it is the most competitive race on the card, by some margin.
In fairness, that’s what you’d expect for a £30K race, for horses rated 130 or lower…

It’s nearly impossible to work out what’s going to win it - as the winner will almost certainly show improved form.

Worse still, most of the runners have plenty of scope for improvement !

Accepting that it wouldn’t be a shock if any of the 15 runners won, I’ll offer a short list of 3: Dory; Rebel Royal and Victarion…

Dory probably sets the standard, form-wise - though I expected him to be ignored in the betting because he is relatively exposed.

That appears not to be the case, as he’s proving popular this evening (14/1 in to 9/1).

There is a chance that one of the really unexposed horses will be too good for him - but I would expect him to run a big race - and first time cheek pieces and a decent 7lb claimer, suggest his connection's are giving it their best shot…

Rebel Royal and Victarion filled the places behind Commodore Barry, in a novice hurdle run at this course, in May.

At the revised weights, Rebel Royal should come out best - and he’s also had a recent run, so shouldn't lack for fitness.

The case for Victarion is based around the fact he was favourite that day (so probably under-performed) - whilst his stable is now in much better form.

Strictly on the book, he can’t win - but I wouldn’t let him go off at too big a price (he’s currently a 14/1 shot).

I’ll probably spread stakes around the 3 mentioned (plus one or two others, if the prices are generous enough !) - but I’d suggest Rebel Royal, as just about the most likely winner…

Selection: Rebel Royal at10/1

Fontwell

Quality is thin on the ground at Fontwell - so I’d be particularly wary about getting involved.

That said, it’s interesting that Dickie Johnson chooses to ride there, rather than at Worcester (where he could have partnered Victarion - amongst others).

He will doubtless pick up a winner - or two - it’s just a case of figuring out which ones..!

3:25

Never Learn may well be one for Dickie - but he seems short enough in the betting at 7/4…

I’d be more inclined to take a chance on Jarlath.

He’s back on his last winning mark - and should be fit, following a recent run on the flat.

Ground and trip should be fine for him - and he’s run well at Fontwell in the past.

He can be backed at 11/2 this evening - and that seems fair enough in an open looking 6 runner race…

Selection: Jarlath at 11/2