Friday November 24th

Review

It ended up quite an exciting afternoon – considering there were only 3 races under consideration…

In the first of them Ballotin was the mother of all drifters – out to 25/1 on BF at the off – and yet he should have won !

He travelled beautifully, but his inexperienced jockey got him racing too soon and he didn’t manage to get home.

He ended up a well beaten – if honourable - second…

The Lunchtime Nap, Antony, consistently jumped to his left in the 3:15 – as if he was feeling something.

Walk in the Mill had no such issues – and a tremendous jump at the last won him the race.

He’d been backed down to 8/1 at the off – a price more in line with his chance of winning…

In the final race of interest (3:50) – a shocking mistake by Midnight Maestro did for his chances at the very first flight.

Considering the race was won by Verdant Blue – and the 2 were handicapped to finish together - you have to think he would have gone very close without it.

The EW call on Eddiemaurice, went very close to collecting, as he finished a fourth.

That said, Skybet paid 4 places – so maybe a few of you backed him with them, and did collect !

That’s it on the blog, until next week – hope you all have a good weekend !

Lunchtime Update

The most significant market development this morning, is the drift on Ballotin in the 2:40 race.

He was 6/1 last night – which seemed fair – but he can now be backed at double that price, in places…

I’m pretty sure that is just an over-reaction to his last time out run in France – and he strikes me as a very good bet at 10/1 or greater…

Antony remains solid in the market for the 3:15 – where the support for Brandon Hill is a little concerning…

Walk in the Mill has also been supported (in to 11/1) – but I suspect that’s just because his price was too big, last night…

There’s not much to report in the 3:50 race – though Eddiemaruice is 25/1 in a couple of places – and that’s a decent EW bet.

Antony was always favourite for the Lunchtime Nap – but the drift on Ballotin coupled with the support for Brandon Hill, has made it quite a close call.

I’ll stick with my original plan – but I’ll definitely be backing Ballotin !

Lunchtime Nap: Antony 3:15 Ascot (fair price 3/1)

Evening Preview 

Generally speaking, I don’t intend to post on the blog on a Friday…

If there are ‘Big races’ taking place (as was the case last week), then I will aim to tip in them and cover them via the write-ups for the Main service.

If there aren’t any ‘Big races’ taking place, then I like to use Fridays to get ahead of the game - as Saturdays and Sundays are invariably manic !

However, I’m making an exception for tomorrow…

There’s a really good card, at Ascot – and whist there aren’t any races which I feel I can tip in, the final 3 contests are good quality handicaps – and there are even a couple of official TVB eye catchers running…

The first of those, is Ballotin – and he contests the handicap chase at 2:40.

He caught the eye, when winning at Wetherby on his UK debut, back in October.

I felt he won that day, despite a few things going wrong - and a 4lb rise in his handicap mark hardly seemed punitive…

He’s since run back in France, and disappointed.

I’m not sure what to make of that – but it does mean that he’s a better price tomorrow, than would otherwise be the case !

Nicky Henderson sets a poser, by running both Kilcrea Vale and Pougne Bobbi.

I’m more a fan of the latter – but he definitely appears to be the second string tomorrow…

Ballotin therefore appears to have Kilcrea Vale to beat – and 6/1 about him doing that, seems a fair enough price…

The second eye catcher to run tomorrow, is Marcilhac - and he runs in the 3:15 race.

He caught the eye last time at Ludlow, when finishing second.

My issue with him, is that I think he needs softer ground than he’s going to get.

Consequently, I prefer the chances of Antony.

I tipped him last time, when he ran a fair race over course and distance.

He’s been dropped 2lb on the back of that run – and wears first time cheek pieces tomorrow.

He’s will also be running from a mark just 2lb higher than when successful – again over course and distance – last November.

In short, he’s handicapped to win – and I think he will take a bit of beating…

At a much bigger price (16/1), I’ll be keeping a close eye on Walk in the Mill.

A few poor runs have seen his mark slip – but I think he’s got untapped potential.

He’s stepped up in trip tomorrow – and if that brings about improvement, he could go very well…

The final race of interest, in the handicap hurdle which closes the card (3:50).

I think the right 3 horses head the market (Midnight Maestro, Verdana Blue and Speredek) – but I’m struggling to choose between them.

The first 2 are very closely matched on last time out form, over tomorrows course and distance.

They are impossible to split on that run: wherever one finishes the other should be inches away ! (a possible forecast ?!)

At bigger odds (14/1), last years winner, Eddiemaurice, is not without a chance.

He’s been running over fences – but reverts to hurdles off the same mark as 12 months ago.

He needs decent ground – but assuming he gets that, he could run a big race….

I’ll aim to produce a Lunchtime Update and a Review tomorrow – but they are likely to be brief (for the reasons stated earlier).

There will definitely be a Lunchtime Nap – any suggestions for which horse I’m targeting ?!