Thursday November 30th

Review 

Whos my Jockey ran a good race at Towcester – but was no match for Bastien.

He was one of the nominated dangers – and was well backed early.

Support for him dried up, close to the off – but it didn’t prevent him from coming home a decisive winner…

In the previous race on the card, Some Finish rewarded sustained support.
He was 8/1 early last night: 7/2 first thing this morning: 3/1 at lunchtime – and 9/4 at the off !

Confidence like that is rarely misplaced…

One of Us was a bit keen at Taunton – and paid the price late on.
He’ll be of more interest next time; whilst Captain Buck’s was no match for Lovely Job, in the novice handicap chase.

It was interesting to see that the winner was backed in to 5/4 at the off (the price he was last night), having drifted to 7/4 at lunchtime…

Affair D’Honneur was weak in the market at Musselburgh – which is always a concern when a horse is returning after an issue.

He never looked comfortable in the race and finished well beaten.

You would need to see him show something, before you could consider following him.

By contrast, Silver Concorde was very strong (he too was returning after issues) – and he duly bolted up in the novice hurdle.

There are certain situations, where you really do have to listen to the market…

That’s it for the blog this week, I’m afraid…

It’s not been the best of weeks (racing wise – or preview wise !) – but that can happen when you reach the depths of winter…

There’s a busy weekend ahead - starting tomorrow at Newbury – and I’ll be covering that fully for the main service.

Meanwhile, blog reader have got the joys of  Fakenham, Plumpton, Southwell and Lingfield to look forward to on Monday and Tuesday !

Have a good weekend !!

Lunchtime Update

Whos my Jockey has been surprisingly weak at Towcester.

It is a competitive race – but I suspect the main reason is because he was put in too short, last night.

He’s out to 3/1 now – in the face of support for Bastien and Now McGinty (the latter has been tipped by Andy Holding).

That’s quite a tempting price…

Conversely, Some Finish has been subject to significant support in the 1:10.

He was at least 8/1 in a place, last night – but you’ll struggle to beat 3/1 now.

As always, the key will be whether the support is maintained to the off…

At Taunton, One of Us has been stronger in the market than Silent Steps.
However, the key market movements are likely to come closer to the off.

Captain Buck’s has remained relatively solid in the market, as support has come for Joe Farrell.

I do like him – but Rebecca Curtis is struggling a bit atm – which is off putting.

Lovely Job is weak in the market – but as with Whos my Jockey, that’s probably because he was put in too short, last night.

At Musselburgh, Affaire D’Honneur is in to 11/8 – helped by a couple of non runners.

He looks very solid though.

Similarly, Silver Concorde is now odds on (4/6) from even money last night.

There is no doubt that he could be different class to his rivals – and the market vibes suggest that he’s ready to do a job…

Unlike the past few days, there are a good few options for the lunchtime Nap.

I was hoping to go to Musselburgh for Affair D’Honneur or Silver Concerde – but both have been backed a bit too short this morning (though I do think both are the most likely winners).

Instead, I’m going to go to Towcester and take on the most competitive race of the day !

I think Whos My Jockey is going to take a lot of beating – and 3/1 is now a reasonable price.

Lunchtime Nap: Whos my Jockey 1:40 Towcester (Fair Price 3/1)

Evening Preview 

There are 4 NH meetings tomorrow: at Towcester, Taunton and Musselburgh in the UK – plus Thurles in Ireland.

I was maybe a little harsh in my earlier assessment of tomorrows racing.

It’s reasonable enough, for a midweek – with at least a couple of races of interest, at each of the UK courses (midweek racing in Ireland is generally a minefield best avoided – from a betting perspective, anyway !).

The best race of the day, probably takes place at Towcester, at 1:40.

It’s a really competitive handicap hurdle, in which last time winners of 3 decent events (for the grade), lock horns, in the shape of Brown Bear, Tempuran and Golan Future.

They are opposed by a couple of other interesting sorts, in Bastien and Now McGinty.

However, all 5 could be eclipsed by Who’s my Jockey.

He’s only 4 and carries a fair amount of weight, for winning a novice hurdle at Uttoxeter, last time – however, I suspect he could be up to the job…

It seems significant that Richard Johnson is riding at Towcester, when Philip Hobbs runs a few fancied ones at Taunton – and I suspect Who’s my Jockey, is the main reason…

The previous race on the card 1:10 is a poor event - and Classic Jewel has been installed a short priced favourite.

However, I’m quite interested in Some Finish.

He’s been badly out of form – but his handicap mark has now dropped to a point from which he can win.

The application of cheekpieces for the first time is interesting: as is the booking of Jack Quinlan (replacing a 7lb claimer).

He’s a risky one – but he certainly had the ability to win, if the changes can rekindle the old flame (and interestingly, he’s been backed, this evening).

The best race on the Taunton card, is probably the novice handicap hurdle, at 1:20.

Silent Steps has been installed favourite, on his first run for Paul Nicholls – and on the form of his final outing last season, that’s quite understandable.

That was at Ayr, where he finished second to Beer Goggles in a decent 15 runner handicap.

The winner is now rated 30lb higher than he was that day, so Silent Steps was clearly facing an impossible task.

By contrast, his mark has only been raised 1lb, so if he’s fit enough to do himself justice, he’s likely to take a lot of beating…

The other one of major interest in the race, is One of Us.

He’s also making his seasonal debut – but was very well backed on his penultimate outing last season, suggesting that connections think he’s a well handicapped horse.

I would expect the market to advise on which one of the pair is most likely to come out on top tomorrow…

Chasing debutante, Captain Buck’s interests me most in the next race on the card (1:50).

He’s got some decent hurdles form – and Nicholls horses generally jump well on their chasing debuts – particularly the younger ones (and he’s only 5).

Lovely Job has been installed favourite - but there must be a chance that Fergal O’Brien’s horses will get over backed at the moment, because he is having such a good run (and it can’t last forever !).

There are a couple of very interesting horses running at Musselburgh…

The first is Affaire D’Honneur, who contests the novice handicap chase at 2:00.

He finished fourth in both the Betfair hurdle and the Imperial cup, the season before last – before disappointing last season.
However, he apparently had a back issue, for which he received treatment over the summer.

If that’s done the trick, then he should prove far too good for tomorrows opponents, as he’s dropped nearly a stone in the ratings.

It certainly seems significant that Harry Whittington sends him all the way to Musselburgh to run (presumably in search of decent ground).

Silver Concorde makes his debut for Keith Dalgleish in the next race (2:30).

He won the 2014 champion bumper at the Cheltenham festival, when under the care of Dermot Weld.

His career over hurdles hasn’t gone to plan – but he’s still got better form over hurdles than any of tomorrows rivals.

Again, if he’s back to anywhere near his best, I would expect him to win – and win easily…