Wednesday November 22nd

Review 

There was no joy for any of todays mentions – though a big market mover helped recover things (if you were prepared to take a risk on him !).

In the absence of any really strong fancies, I made Millanisi Boy the Lunchtime Nap.

I thought he was sure to run his race – even if he wasn’t up to winning.

However, in the desperately heavy ground at Chepstow, only the fittest survived – and Millanisi Boy wasn't sufficiently fit !

In fairness, he was in good company, as only 5 of the 12 who set off, managed to make it back home.

Ramses de Teille thrived in the conditions and came home a wide margin winner.

It wasn’t easy to foresee such a facile success…

It was similar story in the following race, where Dandy Duke handled the ground better than his rivals – and he came home unchallenged, despite it being his first run for over 700 days.

Waterloo Warrior was a big disappointment. He was under pressure from quite early – and whilst he responded for a while, he eventually cried enough, and was pulled up…

Indian Native ran a fair race at Warwick - but I didn’t feel she deserved to be a 9/4 shot – and sure enough, there were a few too good for her…

In truth, she didn’t do a lot wrong – other than maybe trying to match strides with a very game winner (which she ultimately paid the price for - tiring badly, late on).

Finally, Topham Bay was the one of initial interest at Hexham.

However, last night, I pointed out the significant support for Wig Wam Wiggle, up against him.

That one was backed in from 33/1 to 9/2 yesterday evening – but then drifted out to 9/1 this morning.

I’ve see this happen before: the issue is that when he opens at 9/2 in the morning, nobody is interested, because his price seems too short.
The horse therefore drifts...

I backed him at 12/1 on BF, about half an hour before the off.

His BSP was under 6/1 – so the money came again, late.

He didn’t win easily – but he did win.

Topham Bay on the other hand, ran no kind of race and was pulled up,

He has now been scratched from my unofficial list of eye catchers !

Lunchtime Update

I felt last night, that Indian Native was short enough, at 3/1, at Warwick – but you now can’t beat 9/4 !

That’s purely because Andy Holding has tipped the horse – and that being the case, I’d have to leave it alone (there will be no ‘value’ in the shorter price).

At Hexham, Topham Bay remains a 6/1 shot – but the prices of other runners in the race are bouncing around like crazy !

Wig Wam Wiggle was backed into 9/2 last night – but is now out to 9/1 !

That does happen, when the bookmakers run scared of a potential punt – and overdo the running !

In my experience, the price move this morning, doesn’t mean anything.
The horse is probably fancied by someone – and is still worth keeping an eye on it.

The race is far too tricky to contemplate getting involved with tho..

So that just leaves Chepstow…

Millanisi Boy is a slight drifter in the 2:25 – but that wouldn’t put me off.

He’s a decent EW bet at 11/1.

Not surprisingly, there has been money for Grand Introduction – whether that’s instigated by the stable or a tipster, is anyones guess.

If it’s maintained to the off, I’d take note…

Finally, you can back Waterloo Warrior at 5/1 in a place – and that’s another decent EW bet.

Again, I couldn’t be confident he will win – but like Millanisi Boy, he’s got a very good chance of placing…

I had earmarked Indian Native as the Lunchtime Nap, but Andy Holding has done for that…

Instead, I’ll go with Millanisi Boy – EW (I think he has a good chance of placing – though there are plenty of potential dangers).

Lunchtime Nap: Millanisi Boy EW (Fair Price 11/1)

Evening Preview 

There are 3 NH meetings tomorrow: at Warwick, Chepstow and Hexham – however, only 1 of the 21 races that take place, is higher than class 4 (and that’s a 2 runner novice chase at Warwick !).

It’s definitely a case of quantity rather than quality…

That said, there are a couple of eye catchers running: an ‘official TVB’ one – and an unofficial one !

The official one is Indian Native, who contests the mares novice handicap chase at Warwick (1:05).

She caught the eye on her latest run at Carlisle – which was also her seasonal debut…

That was in a hotter contest than she runs in tomorrow (and against geldings) – and she ran really well to finish fourth.
Off the same mark tomorrow, she should take a lot of beating.

The only concern is that she faces a few potential improvers – the likes of Same Circus and Sister Sibyl.

That said, Indian Native really should run her race – and if she does, she will go very close.

She’s 3/1 this evening, which is shorter than I would have liked (isn’t that always the case?!) – but understandable…

The unofficial eye catcher, is Topham Bay, who contests the final race at Hexham (3:40).

She caught the eye back in September (!) when staying on in her first run in a handicap, at Kelso.
She did the same again last time – and whilst that was over a longer trip, I expected her to be stepped up again in distance (possibly to 3 miles).

That’s not happened – but cheek pieces have been enlisted and she will face much softer ground.

As a consequence, she’s less likely to get outpaced (which is what has happened the last twice)…

She may be good enough to win – though it’s impossible to be sure that the changes will have the desired effect.
More than that, she faces a number of rivals who are difficult to get a handle on…

There’s been a lot of money for Wig Wam Willy this evening (33/1 into 9/2 !) – but it really is that kind of race.

Topham Bay might be good enough to win it – but then again..!

The 2 other most interesting races on the day, both take place at Chepstow…

There’s a decent novice handicap chase off at 2:25 and I quite like the look of Milanisi Boy.

He ran in some better class races than this last season (over both hurdles and fences)  – and didn’t do too badly.

He’s also won in the heavy at Chepstow and run well on his seasonal debut.

I can see him running a big race – even with top weight – and 10/1 looks a very fair price…

The are plenty of potential dangers, but I’m particularly concerned about Grand Introduction.

He’s not run for nearly 2 years – but is the only runner on the card for Fergal O’Brien  - and he can virtually walk on water at the minute !

I’d certainly want to save stakes on him…

There doesn’t look to be a great deal of strength in depth to the following race (3:00).

The 2 market leaders certainly have least question marks against them – with Waterloo Warrior looking highly likely to run his race.

He can be backed at 5/1 – which makes him an EW bet to nothing.
That will hold appeal to some…