Monday November 27th

Review 

As I said last night, it didn’t look easy to find bets today…

I tried to force a few at lunchtime, based on morning market moves – but that isn’t really the right way to do things.

A shortage of mid week tipping opportunities, was the main reason why I switched the focus of the main service to ‘Big’ races – and is why I cover the mid week races on this blog (just offering a few thoughts)…

The high light of the day turned out to be the victory of Brain Power.

I tipped him for the Arkle, a month ago, so I have been waiting for him to jump a fence in public – and thankfully, he didn’t disappoint.

I was a little concerned with his market weakness at lunchtime – but by the off he had been backed in to 1/2.

I suspect that was because neither of his main rivals actually wanted to beat him (it would have been disastrous for their handicap ratings !) – but he still had to do his part.

He fiddled a couple of fences – and was long at a few others – but overall, his jumping looked good.

Kempton is not as easy track to jump round – and he is very much work in progress – so in the circumstances, you had to be pleased.

  

Nicky Henderson was quite bullish about him post-race – which augurs well for the future.

His price for the Arkle was halved on the back of the run – with him now a best price of 10/1.

I suspect his main challenge will come from the other side of the Irish sea and I’ll be keeping a close eye on the Irish 2 mile novice chasers…

In the opener, Highway One O One got the better of the unexposed horses, who were  at the top of the market – but he was run out of things, by the horse who was quietly backed this morning…

The bottom line is that it’s very difficult to give away the 6lb winners penalty in these races – and he actually comes out the best horse in the race, at the weights.

However, he wasn’t first past the post (which is all that actually counts !).

I made Midnight Tour the Lunchtime Nap, on the back of a price drift this morning.

However, I think hers was a race where jockeyship made all the difference…

Richard Johnson grasped the nettle on Le Bague au Roi a long way from home and dictated his own fractions.

She’s a tough mare - and given the run of the race, she was always going to be hard to pass.

Meanwhile, Wayne Hutchinson got trapped behind horses, as the pace quickened rounding the home turn.
It probably cost Midnight Tour a couple of lengths - plus momentum.

The result may have been the same regardless – but the margin of victory certainly flattered the winner…

Finally, I found myself going round in circles with the handicap chase – and when that happens, it’s invariably best just to move on…

As it turned out, I was looking in completely the wrong place for the winner – as non of the horses I was interested in, featured at any point in the race…

I’m going to take tomorrow off – as there are just a couple of low key meetings at Sedgefield and Lingfield.

I plan to be back on Wednesday tho – so not too long to wait !

Lunchtime Update 

There have been some quite significant market moves this morning – and most of them not in the direction I was expecting ! (which always makes them interesting)…

In the opener, Highway One O one is very strong in the betting (in to 11/4 from 5/1) – suggesting his unexposed opponents may not be world beaters.

Further support is added to that theory, by the fact that the other well supported horse in the race, is relative outsider, Mister Malarky.

I now think that Highway One o One is likely to go very close…

Brain Power has been weak in the market for the novice chase.
Many of Nicky Hendersons runners have been needing an outing – and maybe that is  going to be the case with him as well.

I hope he’ll get away with it – but I certainly wouldn’t be piling in at 4/6…

Jers Girl has been very strong in the market for the mares hurdle race – but I think her price of 5/4 is now too short.

She has little in hand of Midnight Tour – yet that one can now be backed at 5/1 in places…

Finally, Favorito Buck’s has also been well backed in the handicap chase – again to a price which I think is too short (11/4).

There’s been no money for Gores Island (though I guess it could come late).

There has however been money for Forever Field – and that could be significant…

I was quite interested in him last time he ran, at Ludlow – but he was friendless in the market that day and ran accordingly.

He’s another one of Nicky Hendersons – so he may well have come on for that run.

Provided he doesn’t drift, close to the off, he’s the one I would be most interested in…

Lots of conflicting messages make choosing a Lunchtime Nap, difficult.

Highway One O One is now an option: as is Forever Field.

However, I’ve decided to go with Midnight Tour.

I can see no justification for such a drift – and she’s good value at 4/1 (or bigger)

Lunchtime Nap: Midnight Tour 2:00 Kempton (Fair Price 4/1)

Evening Preview

With Ayr lost to waterlogging, there are now just two meetings taking place tomorrow: at Kempton and Ludlow.

And in fairness, they are not bad meetings - for a Monday. Though finding any potential bets, isn’t easy..!

The better quality action takes place at Kempton - and there’s a TVB eye catcher running in the opening contest (12:50).

Highway One O One caught my eye when winning a maiden hurdle at Plumpton on his penultimate outing.
He’s since finished runner up to an unexposed horse at Fontwell – and it may be a similar story tomorrow…

When I suggested him as an eye catcher, it was in the hope that he would either be stepped up in class – or would run in a handicap.

Instead, he’s been asked to give weight away to completely unexposed horses, on both of his subsequent runs.

Whether he is able to do that, is a lottery – dependant on the ability of his rivals (which can’t be assessed).

Track, trip and ground should be fine for him tomorrow – and at 4/1, he’s almost an EW price. But whether he’ll be good enough to beat Burrows Edge, Potterman and Casterly Rock, is anyones guess…

In the second race on the card (1:20) Brain Power makes his eagerly awaited chasing debut…

He’s the third horse that I’ve tipped ante-post for the Cheltenham festival, to run in the past week or so – and if he can do as well as the first two (Apples Shakira and Lil Rockerfeller), then I’ll not be complaining !

As this will be the first time he’s jumped a fence in public, then everyone is guessing to an extent, with regard to how good he is.
However, he was borderline top class over hurdles – and has the size and scope to make an even better chaser.

It’s interesting that Nicky Henderson has chosen to start him in the same contest that Altior made his chasing debut.
Hopefully Brain Power can produce a novice season to match that of his illustrious stable companion !

As for tomorrow, then it won’t be easy, with both War Sound and Winter Escape, worthy adversaries.

That said, if he’s going to win an Arkle, he really needs to be brushing them aside - with contempt.

No pressure then !

The best race of the day, is the mares hurdle which takes place at 2:00.

I’ll be a bit surprised if the winner doesn’t come from the top 3 in the betting – even though all 3 are trying the trip for the first time.

Jers Girl and Midnight Tour are closely matched on ratings – and whilst Le Bague au Roi has about 7lb to make up on them, she may get the run of the race.

It’s not an easy one to call – but I suspect the market has it right, in making Irish raider Jers Girl the favourite.

I couldn’t really recommend backing her at 6/4 – but if she were to drift to beyond 2/1 tomorrow, then she would become interesting…

I can see myself struggling to find a Lunchtime Nap tomorrow (as was the case at the back end of last week).

In all probability, I will be looking to the handicap chase at 2:30.

I think a few of the runners can be eliminated – and Favorito Bucks appears the most likely winner to me, on the back of a promising run last time.

The other one to catch my eye, is Gores Island.
His recent form makes him risky - but he’s handicapped to just about win.

It’ll certainly be interesting to see what the market makes of his chances…