Monday November 20th

Review 

I had limited expectations for today – but things worked out quite nicely, with all 4 mentions running well…

The high light was probably the victory of the ironically name High Expectations !

He absolutely bolted up at Leicester – and in so doing, became the first winning Lunchtime Nap.

It could be argued, that after Cheltenham de Vaige and Forgetthesmalltalk last week, his victory was owed…

Benetar also managed to win, at Plumpton.

He was nowhere near as impressive as he had been at Ascot – but it was all about winning for connections, who will now pocket a nice £60K bonus, if he wins at the Cheltenham festival.

I don’t think the race told us anything about what his Cheltenham target might be: jockey Jamie Moore said after the race, that he could be dropped in trip – but I really can’t see that happening.

He’s most likely to remain at 2m4f (the tricky bit will be find the right race) – or possibly stepped up to 3 miles (for the RSA chase or an open handicap).

The days other to mentions didn’t manage to win – but both ran with credit…

Trojan Start finished third in the opener at Leicester.
There were no obvious excuses – he was just beaten by a couple of better horses on the day.

Invicta Lake was a big eye catcher at Plumpton however…
Following his comeback run, I wasn’t sure how much of the old ability remained.

After today, I’m pleased to report that a fair chunk does !

In truth, he probably could have won, with a more aggressive ride - but the jockey was always likely to ride him considerately.

The horse ran on with real gusto up the home straight, and marked himself down as one to be on next time (assuming he comes out of todays race OK).

All in all then, not a bad day !


Just to add: the racing looks really poor tomorrow (even worse than today !) - so the next post on the blog will be tomorrow evening, for Wednesday...

Lunchtime Update

There’s very little to update on, in terms of market moves, this morning…

The 3 horses of interest: High Expectations, Invicta Lake and Trojan Star, have all had about 20% trimmed off their price, compared to last night.

I doubt it means anything, other than the bookies want to duck horses who have a chance…

I think High Expectations in the most likely winner (and the shortest in the betting !)

So I’ll make him the Lunchtime Nap:

High Expectations 1:50 Leicester 9/4

Evening Preview 

There are 2 NH meetings tomorrow – at Leicester and Plumpton – but it’s pretty uninspiring stuff and if it weren’t for the fact that I don’t plan to post on Tuesday, I probably wouldn’t bother previewing it !

In the opener at Leicester (12:50), I am most interested in Trojan Star.
He disappointed on his seasonal debut at Huntington – but he may have needed that run.
He’s handicapped to win – should have no issue with the ground – and is from a stable in cracking form.

6/1 is a fair price…

High Counsel is also quite interesting – but he likes to front run – and there could be plenty of pace in the race.

That should suit Trojan Star, however – and he looks the most solid bet in the race…

I’m not sure how many runners Gordon Elliott has saddled at Leicester – but I would guess not many !

He brings High Expectations over to contest the handicap hurdle at 1:50 – and has booked Richard Johnson to ride.

The subtle signs couldn’t be much less subtle !

I was interested in High Expectations when he ran at the Cheltenham October meeting – and he was still in with a chance when unseating 3 out.

This looks far easier – and whist 5/2 is short, you couldn’t realistically expect any bigger…

Over at Plumpton, it will be great to see Benetar again in the novice chase at 1:40.

He did the main service a big favour on the first weekend of the season – and with just 2 rivals to beat tomorrow, should be able to follow up…

He’s running at Plumpton, in order to qualify for the bonus offered to any horse that wins there and at the Cheltenham festival.

If he does win tomorrow, the challenge will then be to figure out which festival race he will run in…

My guess is the JLT novice chase (he’s already rated too highly to contest the novice handicap chase) – though there is the chance that he could be stepped up to 3 miles at some point.

Whatever, hopefully he’ll come back safe – and in front !

Invicta Lake is the other one of interest on the Plumpton card (2:40). 

He made his return to the track, at the back end of last month, after a long time on the sidelines.

It was difficult to know what to make of that run – he either badly needed it, or he’s lost most of his old ability !

It’s interesting that he’s been dropped in trip tomorrow – and there’s no doubt he is handicapped to win.

He can be backed at 12/1 this evening – and he might be worth a risk at that price.

The other alternative is to leave it until close to the off, as I’m sure the market will know the score with him…