Sunday 29 October 2017

Monday October 30th

Review 



Robintheaulad remained strong in the market at Ayr – and was sent off a 9/2 shot. However, it was a very competitive race – and he wasn’t good enough...
He ran an honest race, but was well beaten, when falling at the final fence.

Chu Chu Percy drifted back to 10/1 at the off – but he ran really well.
He hadn’t got the pace to go with the winner when he quickened clear early in the home straight. However, he was closing him down, as the line came and was ultimately only beaten just over a length.
Given a bit more of a stamina test, he should be able to go one better…

At Galway, The Plotting Shed did drift a little before the off – and was returned at 2/1 (a little bigger on BF).

He ran well – but Presenting Percy was too good for him.
It will be interesting to see how far the winner can go over fences – as he certainly looks a horse of considerable potential.

I thought that 2/1 was a bit short for Call it Magic – but after a morning drift, he was back into that price at the off.

And in truth, he looked a good bet, for most of the race; jumping well and travelling strongly.
He won with a fair bit in hand, and whilst he may not be in the same league as Presenting Percy, it will also be interesting to see how far he can progress.

Dromnea tried to keep tabs on him, but wasn’t up to the job.
He started to feel the pinch about half a mile form home – at which point, mistakes began to creep in.
He appeared to have quite a hard race in defeat…



Lunchtime Update


I did very well when I looked  at Ayr, last night – as I managed to high-light the 2 best backed horses on the entire card !

In the novice handicap chase at 2:40, Robintheaulad has been backed in from 10/1 last night – to a best price of 5/1 (generally 4/1); whilst in the 3:15 race, Chu Chu Percy has been backed in from 14/1 last night, to a best price of 13/2 (6/1 generally).

Unfortunately, this doesn’t mean they will win ! – the market moves are most likely to be either  corrections to price errors in the early prices – or as a result of this blog having more of an impact on the early market, than I anticipated ! (in truth, I suspect the former !)

The key with both horses, will be whether they remain strong in the market at the off – as there is a danger they will both drift, as they have arguably now been over-backed…

At Galway, De Plotting Shed is very strong in the market for the beginners chase (1:45).
He’s now a 6/4 shot, which strikes me as too short (it has possibly been caused by Andy Holding tipping him).
Again, the later market moves will be the key ones.
I would be inclined to lay him at 6/4 – and hope that his price drifts close to the off (at which point, I’d back him)…

Call it Magic has drifted in the 2:25 race, which is what I expected.
Dromnea hasn’t been backed – but that doesn’t really bother me.
I think he’s a fair bet at the 7/1 available now…


Evening Preview 


There are 3 NH meetings tomorrow: at Galway and Wexford in Ireland – and Ayr in Scotland…

The best racing takes place at Galway – with the high light of the card, the Beginners chase at 1:45

Presenting Percy and Mall Dini give Patrick Kelly a very strong hand (you would have thought he could have found separate races for his 2 stable stars !).
Davy Russell rides the former, which suggests he’s the more fancied (though Ruby isn’t a bad reserve, for Mall Dini !).
De Plotting Shed appears to be Gordon Elliotts main hope – though Free Expression and Sutton Manor are also both very useful.
It’s a race where you would have to be guided by the betting – but it looks likely to be a fascinating contest…

The following race offers a better chance for a wager…
Call it Magic is arguably under-priced – as he is unexposed and has Ruby on board.
He maybe good enough to win – but 2/1 is not much of a price…
I’d rather side with Dromea.
He caught my eye travelling very strongly last time, in the Munster National.
He didn’t get home in that race – but he’s dropped back 2 furlongs in trip, tomorrow – and that’s sure to help.
He finished second in the corresponding race last year, off a 6lb lower mark – but I think he’s in better for this season (as most of Mouse Morris’s horses are).
6/1 this evening, is a fair enough price…

There’s a really interesting novice handicap chase at Ayr, off at 2:40.
Royal Plaza has been installed favourite on the back off a good run last time.
The trouble is, he’s a bit of a professional loser - and it is likely to take all of Dickies ‘cajoling’ to get him home in front…
Also, there are plenty of potential dangers in the race…
Socksy, Star Tackle and Robintheaulad look the 3 main ones.
The latter is Danny Cooks only ride of the day – and at 10/1 this evening, he looks a decent bet…

Chu Chu Percy is the one that interests me most in the following conditional jockeys handicap hurdle…
He’s making his handicap debut, having been well-backed last time he ran, in a novice event, last December.
He will need to have improved since then – but the eye catching booking of James Bowen, suggests that may well be the case.
If he’s well supported in the market (14/1 this evening), it’s probably worth taking the hint…

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