Thursday October 19th

Review 

It wasn’t too surprising to see Minella Rocco struggle at Punchestown – in fact it wasn’t too surprising to see all of the big names struggling (as they have a long season ahead and were therefore unlikely to be cherry ripe today)…

With hindsight, I really should have suggested the race fit, front-runner, Kilcarry Bridge – at very least, as a back to lay in-running option.

As it turned out, he wasn’t quite good enough to hold off Road to Respect (who just keeps on improving) – but he certainly got very close to causing a ‘shock’…

Hartside drifted back out to 11/1 at the off, in the Carlisle opener – and never really featured (he was under pressure quite early in the race).
I would need to see a return to form before I could consider supporting him.

A little like in the Bobby Renton yesterday, the morning market moves were contradicted – to an extent – by the late ones in the 3:15 race.

Having been weak this morning, Vic de Touzaine was well backed close to the off.

He went off 4/1 jt fav – and just got up close home.

Federici on the other hand, drifted back out to 5/1 – and ran as if he needed the outing.

I guess all the market was doing this morning, was adjusting the over-night prices (when Vic de Touzaine had been put in a bit short: and Federici a bit long)…

Report to Base was quite weak in the betting for the 4:55 (out to 6/1 at the off) and was another who ran is if the race was needed.

Shinooki ran a cracker in the 3:25 at Uttoxeter – and briefly looked like he might win, never mind place !

However, he faded between the final 2 flights and eventually only managed fifth  (which was a shame, as I got 66/1 on him EW, pre-race !)

Will o the West also ran really well in the 3:55 race, without quite managing to place.

He was settled out the back, but ran on late to take an encouraging fourth place.

Bennys Mist on the other hand, was very disappointing and was pulled up.

Lunchtime Update

Punchestown

Minella Rocco has been relatively weak in the morning betting – which I don’t find particularly surprising.

The price of Zabana hasn’t changed much (he can still be backed ay 9/1)
I suspect this is a race where the late market moves will tell all…

Carlisle

Hartside appears to have been well backed in the opener (in to 9/1 from 16/1 yesterday evening) – though his market strength isn’t completely backed up on BF.

Maybe he has been tipped up by somone…

Federici has been well backed in the 3:15 – and is now disputing favouritism.

I didn’t expect that, so would be inclined to take notice (particularly if he remains strong in the market, through to the off).

Vic de Touzaine is relatively weak – and again, I would be inclined to be guided by the market with him…

Report to Base has remained quite solid in the market, which considering the strength of support for Beau Bay and Creivehill, suggests he is not unfancied.

This looks a fair race, but I’ll be a bit surprised if the winner comes from outside the 3 mentioned…

Uttoxeter

All 8 are still intending to run in the 3:25 – and Shinooki can be backed at 8/1 to place.

That strikes me as fair value…

In the 3:55, Bennys King has been backed in to 8/1 (form 10/1): whilst Will o the West has drifted to 14/1 (from 12/1).

That said, I wouldn’t read too much into either move…

The money for Another Venture looks more significant – he’s halved in price from 9/1 this morning…

Evening Preview 

There is more good racing taking place tomorrow – particularly at Punchestown, where the Irish Daily Star chase has attracted a top class field…

Punchestown

There are some potentially good horses running earlier on the card – but the race of the day is at 4:10.

Based on Official ratings, Minella Rocco is very much the one to beat – though I suspect he may be vulnerable, tomorrow…

The 3 Gigginstown runners (Outlander, Sub Lieutenant & Road to Respect) all have chances – of the 3, I like Sub Lieutenant best.
However, at tonight’s prices, Zabana holds most appeal (he’s a 9/1 shot)

Carlisle

Old TVB favourite, Hartside, is handicapped to win the opener.

He likes the course and should be fit following a recent run.

Ryan Winks is replaced in the saddle by Tom Broughton, which is an interesting move (though I’m not quite sure how to read it !).

He’s a 16/1 shot this evening – and will definitely be backed if he’s expected to go close…

There are a few of interest in the 3:15 – with Vic De Touzaine, possibly the most interesting of all.

He ran well in better class races than this, last season – and still has potential.

However, 7/2 is short enough for him on his seasonal debut…

Federici is of more appeal at tonight’s prices (9/1) – as he is reasonably handicapped and can go well fresh.

I was really taken by Report to Base over hurdles last season – and he could be even better over fences (as he’s a PTP winner).

He runs in the 4:50 race and the bookies aren’t taking much of a chance with an opening price of 4/1 – though I doubt he’ll be much bigger, if he does win.

Uttoxeter

No Hassle Hoff and Secret Door are clearly the two to beat in the 3:10 – but provided all 8 go to post, there is still third place up for grabs…

There’s a few I don’t fancy, which means that Shinooki could offer a bit of place value at 33/1, this evening.

The 3:55 is not an easy race to call, but I’ll be keeping an eye on 2 of the longer priced runners…

Will o the West ran really well on his seasonal debut at Cheltenham 12 months ago – an could go well, provided he takes to the fences.

Similarly, Bennys Mist has some good hurdles form (including a win at Uttoxeter) and probably isn’t badly handicapped.

They are 12/1 and 10/1 respectively, this evening…