Review
Cracksman got all the plaudits – but the star of the day for
me, was The New One.
As brave as ever he recorded his 19th career win in the
Welsh Champion hurdle.
Cracksman and Enable can’t muster that many wins between
them ! – which in a nutshell, is the difference between NH and flat racing…
Elsewhere, there was a lot of woodwork rattling !
Non more so than Giveaway Glance at Stratford.
I thought she was the best bet on a tricky day – and despite
a late market drift, she got within a short head of proving me right…
Bristol de Mais absence made life a lot easier for Romain de
Senam - but he only just got the better of Burtons Well.
I suspect his winning run will stop at 2 (unless he’s given
a long rest)…
Itshardto No drifted to a backable price – which was a
shame, as he never really featured in a race won well by El Terremoto.
Jurby was well backed in the 4:45 – but ran green and
couldn’t quite get past an enterprisingly ridden winner.
Sultana Belle was even better backed in the finale, with an
unbelievable SP of 7/2.
She ran OK – but never looked likely to win.
At Market Rasen, Legende Volante also ran OK (for a 100/1
shot !)..
She definitely has ability – and may appreciate a drop back
to 2 miles.
McKenzies Friend is definitely becoming an enigma.
Backed in to 4/1 at one point, he was out to 12/1 at the off
(on BF) – and ran as the betting suggested he would.
He really can only be watched (with interest, though !).
Cry Wolf on the other hand, ran really well to finish third.
Finally, West Approach made quite an impressive debut over fences
– it’ll be interesting to see how far he can go.
Lunchtime update
There’s not been much movement of interest in the morning
markets – just a few of the more speculative ones getting backed (the key will
be whether they remain strong to the off).
Stratford
The price of Giveaway Glance (2:30) has remained unchanged
at 8/1.
She’s worth a small risk at those odds.
Walk in the Mill (3:00) has had a few points shaved off his
price (now 10/1) – but that could easily be ‘value hunters’…
Itshard to No (3:35) has shortened a fraction in price (now
5/1) – I’ll have to wait a little longer for the drift !
Jurby (4:45) has been trimmed from 8/1 to 6/1 – and that is
quite interesting.
Further support would almost certainly be significant.
Similarly, Sultana Belle (5:45) is now a best price of 6/1.
I suspect she’s not travelled over for a day out !
Ffos Las
Brelan Das (3:20) has usurped West approach at the head of
the market – but you pay your money and make your choice.
There’s been a bit of support for the 2 outsiders in the
Welsh Champion hurdle (4:25) – but
again, it’s probably just people trying to get some value.
Duc Kauto has been backed in to 5/1, to beat Cereal Killer (5:35)
– but I doubt it is significant money…
Market Rasen
Legende Volante (1:10) can now be backed at 100/1 in a place
– and there are still 8 runners in the race.
I’ve backed her EW…
Money has unsurprisingly come for MacKenzies Friend (2:50);
whilst Cry Wolf remains roughly the same price as first thing (with the NRs
taken into consideration).
Early Morning Preview
With Champions day taking place at Ascot, today is the final
Saturday before the end of March, when the flat racing is more significant than
the jumps.
There are no ‘big’ jumps races today – so rather than
produce a full write-up, I’ve decided to just put a few thoughts and pointers
on the mid-week blog (accepting it isn’t actually the mid week !).
I’ll look to update them at lunchtime – and review this
evening…
Stratford
Alan King tends to do well with mares – and well at
Stratford – and Giveaway Glance is his only runner on today card (2:30).
She’s had a pipe opener on the flat – and despite this being
a relatively competitive event, looks a fair bet at 8/1…
Romain de Senam won well at Chepstow last Sunday – but runs
in a stronger race here (3:00).
In fairness, he will have a fitness edge over his main
rivals – and that may see him home in front again – but I wouldn’t bet on it,
at even money…
Bristol de Mai is the class act in the field – and if he’s
fully tuned, he would be a good bet at 4/1.
Burtons Well could also go close – if he’s ready to do
himself justice; whilst Walk in the Park is the value option, at 14/1…
I’m most attracted to Itshard to No in the 3:35 race – but
not sufficiently attracted to get involved at a best price of 11/2.
Maybe he’ll drift a little during the morning…
Jurby interests me in the 4:45 – on his debut for Oliver
Sherwood.
There’s too much guesswork to be confident – but he’s
Leighton Aspells only ride on the day and if he’s backed, it’s likely to be
significant.
He’s currently an 8/1 shot.
Sultana Belle has already been hammered in the betting for the
5:45 – which is a shame (though understandable !).
She’s a potentially well handicapped horse, having her first
run for a trainer who does well in the UK. Top Irish conditional, Rachael
Blackmore, has also come over for the one ride…
She opened at 25/1 last night – but you’ll struggle to beat
8/1 now.
Maybe she’ll drift back out a little, because her profile is
appealing…
Ffos Las
There’s a very interesting beginners chase at 3:20 – but
it’s a watching race rather than a betting race…
West Approach was the best of the runners over hurdles – and
is the one to beat.
However, Brelan Das could literally be anything.
Kimberlite Candy is the third one of interest – though
jockey bookings suggest he’s not expected to beat Brelan Das
As with the beginners chase, the Welsh Champion hurdle (4:25),
isn’t really a betting race…
It will be interesting to see if The New One can give away
lumps of weight to some decent rivals.
If he’s fully tuned, I suspect he can – but we’re guessing
on that score and he’s only a 5/2 shot.
Clyne and Ossie the Oscar look the 2 for him to beat –
though I couldn’t confidently dismiss any of the runners…
Duc Kauto is the most interesting runner in the closing
bumper (5:35).
He’s owned by Alan Potts and is the only ride on the card
for Bryan Cooper.
There’s a lot of guesswork – but 7/1 doesn’t seem too bad a
price.
Al Dancer is the other one of interest, for course owner Dai
Walters.
I’d certainly take those 2 against the favourite, Cereal
Killer…
Market Rasen
I’m quite interested in Legend Volante, in the opening race
(1:10).
She’s making her debut over hurdles, having not shown much in a couple of bumpers.
However, she’s very well bred; comes from a stable I like (Amy Murphy) and has a hood applied for the first time (she ran too freely in the bumpers).
She’s making her debut over hurdles, having not shown much in a couple of bumpers.
However, she’s very well bred; comes from a stable I like (Amy Murphy) and has a hood applied for the first time (she ran too freely in the bumpers).
Clearly, there’s a huge amount of guesswork – but at a
general 66/1, she could be worth a tiny EW play (assuming all 8 go to post)…
I have to give a quick mention to Mackenzies Friend in the
2:50 race.
He’s one from last season, who has transferred to the stable
of Phil Kirby.
He ran a shocker on his seasonal debut at Kelso and couldn’t
be recommended on the back of that run.
However, he steps up in trip and I’m sure the ability is
there for him to win off his current mark.
He’s invariable backed – so market support wouldn’t be
particularly significant.
Rather than side with him, I’ll probably take a chance on
Cry Wolf at 16/1.
The horse should be fit; has potential – and James Evan does
well at Market Rasen.
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