Friday October 27th

Review 

I just love Cheltenham ! and I particularly love Derek O Connor !!

The guy isn’t top notch – he’s different class !

He may have been on the best horse in the 4:20 race, in the shape of What Happens Now – but he still gave him a sublime ride.

Simply, O Connor wins races that other wouldn’t, because he makes moves that others wouldn’t.

He’s not afraid to take the initiative – and his judgement of pace and a stride, is peerless.

As you can probably tell, I’m a fan !!

Indian Castle ran a very good race to follow him home – with Petite Power also running well to finish fourth.

3 in the first 4 (out of 4 mentions), wasn’t a bad effort…

I didn’t do too badly in 3:10 race either…

I was slightly put off by Tim Vaughans Cheltenham losing streak of 153 – but as I said, he was bound to have a winner eventually !

And on his only ride of the day, Dickie Johnson steered home Master Dancer to a comfortable 10 length win.

Quite a way for Vaughan to break his losing streak !

KK Lexion ran well to finish third in the same race: as did Trans Express to finish fifth (he was also subject to some serious late market support).

It was all a bit too much for Golan Fortune – but there will be other days for him…

The market accurately predicted events in the novice chase at 2:35.

Movewiththetimes was friendless – and ran as if needing the outing: whilst North Hill Harvey was subject to strong market support and just managed to get the better of favourite, Sceau Royal.

Beat That took a novicey fall in the novice chase (3:45) – which was a shame, as I thought he was travelling quite well at the time.

I somehow doubt the horse is every going to reach the heights that I once envisaged…

Finally, High Expectations crossed the line first in the concluding handicap hurdle – but without his jockey on top !

He unshipped him at the third last and then proceeded to get in the way of most of the other runners.

This all played into the hands of race leader, Bobble Emerald – who was a gutsy, if slightly fortuitous winner.

Instant Karma ran a reasonable race – but not really one to suggest that a win is imminent… 

Lunchtime Update 

The market seems to be favouring Sceau Royal in the novice chase at 2:35.

It’s likely to be a watching race for me though, regardless…

One Forty Seven has been subject to huge market support in the handicap hurdle at 3:10.

He’s certainly got the profile of a potential improver – and NTD does like to target his horses at this meeting.

I’d be inclined to take the support seriously…

Golan Fortune has held his place in the market, which is nice to see: whilst Eaton Hill has drifted (probably as a consequence of the support for One Forty Seven).

KK Lexion is another who has remained solid – but Trans Express has been very weak…

As with the previous contest, I think a watching brief is the best advice…

Beat That is weak in the market for the novice chase at 3:45 – he’s another one who I’m likely to just watch…

There’s been a lot of support for both Indian Castle and Bugsie Malone in the 4:20 race.

I can understand the former (he’s got that kind of profile) – but the latter is more interesting (I wouldn’t have been surprised to see him drift).

In the circumstances, it could be worth having Bugsie Malone on side.

I’d also be inclined to stick with What Happens Now.
He’s a 12/1 shot – and with 17 runners, bookmakers will pay ¼ odds on the first 4.
As I said last night, he really should run his race - so that price holds some appeal…

Instant Karma can now be backed at 33/1 in places for the 5:30 race – but that’s OK,  I didn’t really expect him to be supported.

The apparent lack of support for High Expectations is more concerning – though there is a chance the money will arrive late…

Evening Preview 

Whilst there’s a temptation to get stuck in tomorrow - just because it’s Cheltenham - I don’t think that would be wise…

We are still very much in the 'pre-season': almost half of tomorrows runners will be  making their seasonal debut, and whilst there should be a little less guesswork, with regard to fitness (because some of the trainers will have targeted their horses at the meeting), there will still be more of it required than ideal…

Consequently, I’m inclined to mainly suggest horses which should be monitored, with a view to a future – though I guess you could take a small risk on one or two of them (if you are that way inclined !)

There is a cracking novice chase at 2:35 – and I’ll be a little surprised if it’s not won by one of the 2 market leaders…

Sceau Royal has already won on his fencing debut at Warwick – but he has to give 5lb to the potentially high class Movewiththetimes, and that is a big ask…

He could be up to it – and the market will doubtless have a view close to the off.

At this point in time however, I would rather sit on the fence…

The first of the days big field handicaps is off at 3:10.

There are plenty of interesting runners – and I’ll be keeping a close eye on the betting for quite a few of them…

Top weight, KK Lexion interests me – as he was very impressive when winning at Wincanton last season, before going off the boil.

I could also be interested in Master Dancer – if it weren’t for Tim Vaughans dreadful Cheltenham record.
I guess he’ll get a winner at the course one day – and the horse is Dickies only ride of the day…

Trans Express is another of interest, following his seasonal debut win at Exeter.

Though, he’s 7lb higher in the weights tomorrow, and steps up in trip – so has a bit to prove.

Eaton Hill is the race favourite - and certainly has some form which justifies that: however the one of most interest to me, is Golan Fortune.

He’s completely unexposed under rules, having only run twice over hurdles.

That inexperience could catch him out – but it’s fascinating that he’s running in this race (and not a novice event).
He could go either way, but at 20/1, may be worth a tiny risk…

I’ve always liked Beat That as a horse and it will be interesting to see if he can get his career back on track in the 3:45.

He’s held by favourite, Fagan, on Perth running – but may be capable of better than he showed that day.

In the amateur riders race at 4:20, I’ll take 4 against the field:

What Happens Now, is the most solid – particularly with Derek O Connor on board.

He really should run his race…

Indian Castle is handicapped to win – but hasn’t run for over 500 days.

He has Sam Waley-Cohen in the saddle, which again, looks a statement of intent.

I like the profile of Bugsie Malone best – but he is unproven over the course: whilst the fourth one I want onside, is Petite Power – primarily because it is trained by Fergal O’Brien (who has a very good Cheltenham record)

Prices this evening are 9/1, 9/1, 10/1 and 16/1 – for reference purposes…

The final race of interest on the card, is the closing handicap hurdle.

A bit like with Master Dancer, I could be interested in Our Kylie, if it weren’t for the poor Cheltenham record of Brian Ellison.

High Expectations for Gordon Elliott looks more than capable of winning – particularly if backed (he’s 6/1 this evening).

Whilst I’m also quite interested in Instant Karma, on his first run for Jamie Snowden.

He’s potentially well handicapped, if he has been brought back to form – and the fitting of a tongue tie is an interesting move.

He can be backed at 20/1 this evening…