Monday 23 October 2017

Tuesday October 24th

Review 


Aside from Yanworth, it wasn’t easy to find the winners at Exeter today…

Harefield was very well backed pre-race in the novice hurdle (into 4/1 from 10/1 at lunchtime) – but he was too free early and had nothing left when the race developed in earnest.
With Kapcorse disappointing (as the market predicted), it was the apparent JP McManus second string, Onefortheroadtom, who got the better of favourite, Lalor.
Harefield could only plug on into a distant fourth place…

Vieux Lille went off a very well backed favourite for the handicap chase at 3:20 but he never really featured.
Duelling Banjos was also well backed (in to 11/2 at the off) and he ran a big race, leading to the final fence.
Bindon Mill was weak in the betting (SP of 12/1) and clouted a couple of fences, so in the circumstances, he did well to finish fourth
There should be a race in him off his current mark.

Sutters Mill remained strong in the market for the 3:50 – but was very disappointing and never featured.
The race was won by seasonal debutante, Midnight Request, under excellent 7lb claimer, James Bowen.
Forgethesmalltalk was the one to take out of the race, however…

Finally, Yanworth put up a very professional performance to get the better of Sternrubin.
I felt he had a job on today, against the talented, race fit runner-up, so the fact he despatched him relatively easily, must augur well for the season ahead.

After Petit Mouchoir and Death Duty last week, there is a chance that we might have seen the winners of the 3 Cheltenham novice championship chase events, in the past few days !

Lunchtime Update



Lalor is very strong on the market for the 2:50 – which suggests that Kapcourse isn’t particularly fancied.
Harefield, EW at 10/1, looks the bet in the race…

The most notable market moves in the 3:20 have been for Vieux Lille and Zephyros Bleu.
Both are seasonal debutantes, so the money could be significant – equally, it could be tipster driven…
In truth, it’s a very open contest – and not one which I’ve got a particularly strong view on…

Sutters Mill is a strong 4/1 shot in the 3:50, which isn’t too surprising, as he has few question marks against him.
He really should run his race and be there or thereabouts…

Finally in the 4:50 race, Sternrubin can still be backed at 4/1 to upset Yanworth, which, all things being equal, should be an EW bet to nothing…


Evening Preview 


There’s another interesting card at Exeter tomorrow – though again, it is more one to watch, than to bet in…

There are quite a few interesting runners in the novice hurdle at 2:50 – chief amongst them first and second favourites, Lalor and Kapcorse…
That said, I wouldn’t be too quick to dismiss Harefield: whilst Onefortheroadtom and Snapdragon Fire are also of some interest…

There are also plenty of potential interest in the 3:20 race – though the fitness of most of them, has to be taken on trust…
Bindon Mill is the one of that interests me most  – but he’s not run for over 200 days.
He’s a 9/1 shot this evening and the market may advise on his readiness…
Duelling Banjos, Vieux Lille, Sartorial Elegance and Umberto Dolivate are others of interest – but again, all are making their seasonal debut, so you are guessing on their fitness…
I would expect the market to provide some pointers – but probably only close to the off…

Sutters Mill has least question marks against him in the 3:50 race – as he is progressive and race fit.
However, there is a chance that one or two of his rivals could improve past him – and he’s only a 5/1 shot.
I guess he could be backed EW at that price, with no loss if he places – which may not be a bad bet…

The reappearance of Yanworth in the beginners chase at 4:50, is the high-light of the card.
He’s rated 163 over hurdles, which gives him 20lb in hand of his nearest rival- Sternrubin.
However, Sternrubin will be fit from the flat – and maybe better suited to tomorrows test.
Provided he jumps round, Sternrubin should finish no worse than second – which could make him of interest, if the price is right (currently 4/1 at best).

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